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Maybe it's the heightened emphasis on all things trend worthy. Then again, maybe it's all of the mainstream grocery retailers we hear about struggling to maintain "relevancy." Whatever the case, we're getting deluged with requests to describe the "grocery store of the future" to anxious clients and media types. To this end, we have some frustrating news and some, well, more comforting news:

First the frustrating part. There will be no grocery store of the future. After all, who will need grocery stores when we can jack into our iPod and download our food directly from iTunes?

More seriously, though, what we are really suggesting is that it is a mistake to ask about the grocery store of the future. Because in the not-too-distant future there will be no single, successful general format grocery retailer that wins by being "all things to all people." Conventional wisdom, which has changed surprisingly little since the 1940s, has always favored one-size-fits-all formats whose most extreme expression can be found in the big-box and mass retailers which portend to deliver on the promise of one-stop shopping. It's as if somewhere along the way we've locked onto this image of a "helpless, confused, overworked household manager" in dire need of convenient solutions to life's many problems. And while this image may prove convenient for generations of retailers and marketers "solving problems" for consumers, this picture just does not jive with reality.

Simply put, consumers have far, far fewer problems than we marketers, analysts and retailers would care to believe. Consumer packaged goods (CPG) manufacturers are busy struggling to maintain relevancy in the rapidly disappearing center store by refashioning their SKUs into infinitely more complex arrays of convenience packaging and line extensions. Meanwhile, those consumers who do happen to be pressed for time find an ever-increasing selection of fresh and prepared food options at a growing variety of channels, many of which did not even exist as little as 10 years ago (coffee shops, airports, food trucks, grocery store food courts, etc.). The writing, as they say, is on the wall. Convenience alone is of a dead-end street for CPG manufacturers and mainstream grocery retailers.

Likewise, a growing body of consumers we speak with are placing a renewed emphasis both on meal preparation and consumption, suggesting it is now a priority to spend precious family time shopping, cooking and eating together. For many consumers, the whole point is to head to the local farmer's market and spend an afternoon shopping with their family, before returning home to prepare a family meal.

But even among current consumers who (a) espouse loyalty to traditional grocery retailers and (b) parrot their love of one-stop shopping on surveys, we find that they still willingly patronize a wide variety of alternative retailers for many of their staple pantry needs. As much as consumers may claim they favor generalist mass retailers delivering on the "one-stop" mantra, their behavior already proves otherwise. And this is a situation that will only be exacerbated by the undeniable allure of more specialized retailers able to deliver a variety of more compelling experiences.

So instead of asking what the grocery store of the future will look like, we believe the more relevant question to ask is, what will food shopping be like in the future, and how will retailers evolve to meet their customers' needs?

The short answer, which can already be found in many more leading-edge marketplaces of today, is that food shopping in the future will center around a constantly evolving collection of more specialized retailers, something we prefer to refer to as an ecology of food retailing.

We define an "ecology of food retailing" as the sum total of retail access points where food and beverages are acquired for the household. Whereas the ecology of food retailing in the 1960s consisted largely of traditional grocery stores (with perhaps a smattering of local eateries), today's ecology looks markedly more diverse. Here we find food retailers of all shapes, sizes and formats, a seemingly unending variety of restaurants and meals-to-go options, coffee shops (many consumers prefer to forage dinner from the food selection at Starbucks), farmers' markets, community supported agriculture programs (whose growth has been nothing short of astounding), local food cooperatives, airports, school cafeterias, and so forth. Oh, and do not forget that many leading grocery stores (e.g., Central Market and Wegmans) now operate full-size food courts at a quality level that would put those of most suburban malls to shame. Indeed, our ecosystem is a most robust and diverse one.

The allusion to population biology - with its notions of evolution and ecology - is not accidental. For we believe the existing evidence around us already points to a diversity of grocery retailing formats whose shape and character have been sculpted as much by consumer-led innovations (e.g., the explosive growth in farmers' markets) as they have the management decisions of large grocery retailers. And as consumer behavior evolves in lock-step with larger developments in food culture - which affects how, when, where and with whom we eat as well as what we eat - we suspect that consumers will come to play an even stronger role in shaping the evolutionary trajectory of food retailing in the future.

So what does an ecology of grocery retailing look like in the near future? Head to any leading-edge city, and you're already likely to find consumers patronizing many - if not all - of the following formats:

• Small-format retailers offering high-quality packaged foods with a strong focus on private label (Trader Joe's)

• Medium- to large-format retailers offering high-quality foods in prepared, fresh and perimeter categories (Central Market, Wegmans, Whole Foods Market)

• Small- to medium-format specialty retailers (local and regional) offering the highest quality specialty foods with an equally strong emphasis on key perimeter categories, as well as a strong emphasis on neighborhoods and all things local (Southern Seasons, Fresh Market)

• Local farmers' markets offering seasonal produce (of course), as well as an increasing selection of local dairy products, local meat products and artisanal products.

• Large-format mass and club stores offering a wide selection of household goods, health and beauty aids, as well as more traditional pantry staples (Costco, Wal-Mart, Sam's).

• An increasing diversity of small, specialty retailers focusing on a very specific category of the food or beverage worlds (tea shops, wine shops, cheese shops, spice shops, charcuterie counter, the revival of local butchers, etc.).

• A variety of as of yet unknown retail formats that will arise to meet the evolving needs of ever-more demanding food consumers whose interests are cultivated and entertained within a broader food culture.

In as much as we are speaking about the present, we would, of course, be remiss if we didn't include traditional mainstream grocers on this list. But to the extent that clients are asking about what grocery retailing will look like in the future, we do not think it too much a stretch to suggest that such retailers will rapidly disappear from the ecosystem. In every sector of our world, consumers are redefining their notions of quality to meet ever-more exacting standards and needs, and food is already proving no exception to this trend.

On the bright side, such evolving needs for quality food experiences prove an opportunity for retailers willing to make bold moves and stake out clearly delineated positions in the marketplace of the future. On the other hand, those whose position has always been to court the mass-market by trying to be all things to all people had better come up with a different strategy, lest they find themselves going the way of the, well, dinosaur.


Tinderbox is a part of The Hartman Group, Inc. Copyright 2008. All rights reserved.